Ghana’s Fourth Republic has revealed an intriguing political pattern one that suggests presidential success often follows repeated attempts, consistency, and persistence. The Ghanaian electorate, it seems, leans towards candidates who have walked the long road, suffered losses, but refused to back down. In this context, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s political journey is beginning to align with a historical trend that favours persistence, and it’s one that could see him emerge victorious not only in the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primaries but also in the 2028 general elections.
Ghana’s democratic landscape under the Fourth Republic has seen most of its presidents fail on their first attempt, only to return stronger in subsequent elections. President John Agyekum Kufuor lost the 1996 elections to Jerry Rawlings but returned in 2000 to defeat John Atta Mills. President Mills himself became a symbol of perseverance, contesting three times losing in 2000 and 2004 before finally winning in 2008. Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo also faced defeat in both 2008 and 2012, only to win the presidency in 2016 after years of relentless campaigning.
Even the case of John Mahama, though unique, reinforces this narrative. Mahama ascended to the presidency following the untimely death of President Mills in 2012. However, after his constitutional tenure, he lost two consecutive elections in 2016 and 2020 yet still remains a dominant figure within the National Democratic Congress (NDC), suggesting that Ghanaians continue to value his resilience and experience.
This historical blueprint underscores one truth: Ghanaians reward consistency, endurance, and candidates who demonstrate long-term commitment to leadership.
Dr. Bawumia’s rise within the NPP is no accident. As Vice President, he has redefined the role, not just as a supportive deputy, but as a policymaker and the face of the party’s digital and economic transformation agenda. His leadership in areas like digitization, mobile interoperability, the Ghana Card integration, and banking reforms has given him a distinct identity, one rooted in modern governance and innovation.
Unlike many traditional politicians, Bawumia appeals both to the grassroots and to Ghana’s growing youthful population, who see in him a forward-thinking leader. His unique background, an economist with deep experience in both local and international finance has earned him credibility, especially among voters who are increasingly policy-conscious.
Within the NPP itself, Dr. Bawumia has steadily consolidated support. His calm demeanor, intellectual approach to politics, and loyalty have positioned him as the natural successor. As the ruling party seeks to return to power after 2028, many within its rank-and-file view Bawumia as the candidate who can bridge the gap between the old guard and a new generation of Ghanaian voters.
After Bawumia not winning the 2024 elections, all signs point to him being a frontrunner in 2028. By then, he would have built on his national presence, sharpened his messaging, and potentially emerged as a symbol of political perseverance. And if Ghana’s political history holds true, voters may reward him for his consistency and resolve.
In the eyes of many Ghanaians, leadership isn’t just about instant results, it’s about showing up repeatedly, learning from defeats, and evolving with the times. Dr. Bawumia fits this mold. With his defeat in 2024, his journey is far from over. In fact, it might just be beginning.
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s prospects are not just based on hope, but on historical patterns, political groundwork, and a deep understanding of Ghana’s evolving electorate. If the Fourth Republic has taught us anything, it is that resilience often wins the presidency. In that regard, Bawumia may well be next in line.
